ICT Daily Bias
Learn how to determine daily directional bias using ICT methodology. Master PO3 candle reading, HTF analysis, and session-based bias determination for consistent trading.
What is Daily Bias?
Daily Bias is determining the most probable direction price will move today. In ICT methodology, every trade begins with establishing bias — without it, you're gambling. Bias tells you to ONLY look for buys or ONLY look for sells.
"Never take a trade without a clear daily bias. If you can't determine bias, stand aside." — ICT
How to Determine Daily Bias
Method 1: Previous Day PO3 Candle
Read the previous Daily candle's Power of 3 structure:
Bullish bias if yesterday:
- Opened, went DOWN first (long lower wick), then closed near HIGH
- This shows manipulation down → distribution up
- Today's bias = BULLISH (continuation expected)
Bearish bias if yesterday:
- Opened, went UP first (long upper wick), then closed near LOW
- This shows manipulation up → distribution down
- Today's bias = BEARISH (continuation expected)
Method 2: HTF Structure
- Daily in discount (below 50% of range) + making HL → Bullish bias
- Daily in premium (above 50% of range) + making LH → Bearish bias
- Use Weekly/Monthly for overall context
Method 3: Draw on Liquidity
Ask: "What is the nearest untouched liquidity pool?"
- If nearest BSL is the target → Bullish bias
- If nearest SSL is the target → Bearish bias
- HTF FVGs and OBs also act as "draws"
Method 4: Day of Week Context
| Day | Tendency |
|---|---|
| Monday | Range-building, accumulation |
| Tuesday | Judas day — often manipulation/reversal |
| Wednesday | Highest probability expansion |
| Thursday | Continuation or reversal setup |
| Friday | Profit-taking, reduced probability |
Daily Bias Checklist
Before trading each day, answer these 5 questions:
- ✅ What is the Weekly bias? (premium or discount?)
- ✅ What did yesterday's candle say? (PO3 reading)
- ✅ Where is the draw on liquidity? (BSL or SSL target?)
- ✅ Are there HTF FVGs/OBs to target? (magnetic levels)
- ✅ What day is it? (Tuesday/Wednesday = best days)
Real Examples
Example 1: Bullish Bias Day on EUR/USD
- Weekly: In discount, making HL
- Previous Daily: Opened at 1.0870, dipped to 1.0845, closed at 1.0895 (bullish PO3)
- Draw: BSL at 1.0950 (previous week high untouched)
- Day: Wednesday (expansion day)
- Bias: ✅ BULLISH — only look for buys today
- Result: London sweeps Asian low → buy setup → price reaches 1.0940
Example 2: Bearish Bias Day on Gold
- Weekly: In premium, LH forming
- Previous Daily: Opened 2,040, spiked to 2,055, closed 2,028 (bearish PO3)
- Draw: SSL at 2,000 (round number + previous swing low)
- Day: Thursday
- Bias: ✅ BEARISH — only look for sells today
- Result: NY AM sweep of London high → sell → drops to 2,008
Common Mistakes
❌ Changing bias mid-day — Once set, stick with it unless extreme invalidation occurs
❌ No bias = still trading — If you can't determine bias, DON'T TRADE
❌ LTF overrides HTF — A 5M setup against Daily bias is a losing trade
❌ Ignoring day of week — Monday and Friday have different character than Tuesday-Thursday
❌ Chasing after the move — Bias is set BEFORE the session, not after price has already moved
Summary
| Method | Tool | Reliability |
|---|---|---|
| PO3 Candle | Read previous Daily candle | ★★★★★ |
| HTF Structure | Premium/Discount + trend | ★★★★★ |
| Draw on Liquidity | Nearest liquidity target | ★★★★☆ |
| Day of Week | Weekly tendencies | ★★★☆☆ |
Related Topics
- Power of 3 — PO3 candle reading
- AMD — Session-based directional cycle
- Liquidity — Understanding the draw on liquidity
- ICT Kill Zones — When to execute on your bias
- Weekly Profiles — Weekly directional tendencies