ICT Monthly Profiles
Understand ICT Monthly Profiles — seasonal and quarterly tendencies that institutions follow. Learn how to use monthly bias for swing trading and long-term positioning.
What are Monthly Profiles?
Monthly Profiles describe the seasonal and quarterly tendencies that institutional traders follow. Just as weeks have daily patterns, months and quarters have predictable characteristics that help determine long-term bias.
Monthly profiles give you the "big picture" context that day traders often miss. Understanding quarterly flows helps you avoid trading against massive institutional positioning.
Quarterly Profiles
Q1 (January - March)
- Often sets the yearly low or completes previous year's move
- January: New institutional positioning begins
- February: Continuation of January's direction
- March: Quarter-end rebalancing
Q2 (April - June)
- Typically the strongest trending quarter
- April: Fresh institutional money enters
- May: "Sell in May" — equity markets may top
- June: Quarter-end adjustments
Q3 (July - September)
- Summer doldrums (Jul-Aug lower volume)
- August: Can see flash crashes (thin liquidity)
- September: Institutions return, high volatility begins
Q4 (October - December)
- Often sets the yearly high or yearly low
- October: Reversal month historically
- November: Pre-holiday positioning
- December: Year-end closing, low liquidity after Dec 15
Monthly IPDA Mapping
Each month, use the IPDA data ranges to find targets:
- Look back 20 days — Mark the range (high/low)
- Look back 40 days — Wider context range
- Look back 60 days — Quarterly perspective
- The untouched liquidity at these levels = monthly targets
Real Example: USD/JPY Q1 2024
- December 2023: Ended in discount (monthly low established)
- January: Bounced from Q4 low, began bullish structure
- February: Continuation — broke above December high
- March: Quarter-end → extended to Q1 high at 151.50
Key: Q1 set the low → Q2 continued the trend direction
Common Mistakes
❌ Ignoring quarterly flows — Institutional rebalancing at quarter-end creates massive moves
❌ Trading against seasonal tendencies — Don't fight the macro current
❌ Expecting daily patterns to override monthly — Monthly bias > daily bias always
Related Topics
- Weekly Profiles — Weekly patterns within monthly context
- Time & Price Theory — IPDA cycles
- Daily Bias — Daily within monthly context
- Dealing Range — Monthly dealing ranges