Monthly Bias

Definition

Monthly Bias is your directional expectation for the current month based on quarterly/monthly market structure and major institutional positioning. This is the highest timeframe bias that cascades down to weekly and daily analysis.

Why It Matters

• Monthly bias represents institutional positioning
• Provides the "big picture" direction
• All lower timeframe analysis should respect monthly bias
• Highest probability trades align with monthly direction

Determining Monthly Bias

Set on last Sunday of previous month:

1. Quarterly/Monthly Structure: Clear trend direction?
2. Previous Month: Closed strong or weak?
3. Major S/R Levels: Where is price relative to key monthly levels?
4. Fundamental Outlook: Central bank policy, economic outlook
5. Seasonal Tendencies: Any historical seasonal bias?

Trading Application

• Monthly bias filters weekly bias
• Don't fight monthly bias with lower timeframe trades
• Position trading aligns with monthly bias
• Monthly bias can persist for 1-3 months

Example

End of May: Monthly closed strong, above key resistance, Fed dovish → Bullish Monthly Bias for June → Seek bullish weekly/daily setups throughout June